disease → environmental-infection-thresholds
Most plant pathogens do not infect continuously.
They require specific environmental conditions, often for a minimum duration, before infection can occur.
These conditions are known as infection thresholds.
Understanding thresholds shifts disease management from reaction to risk prediction.
For most diseases, infection involves several steps:
If any step is interrupted, infection fails.
For many foliar diseases, leaf wetness is more important than rainfall.
Sources of leaf wetness include: - Dew - Fog - Condensation in glasshouses - Overhead irrigation - Poor airflow within dense canopies
Typical patterns: - Short wetness periods → no infection - Extended wetness (hours) → infection possible - Repeated wetness events → high risk
Leaf wetness is strongly influenced by microclimate, not regional weather.
Many pathogens do not require free water, but do require very high humidity.
Common features: - Infection or sporulation above ~90–95% RH - Sporulation increases rapidly once a threshold is crossed - Small RH increases near saturation can have large effects
This explains why disease often accelerates: - Overnight - During still, humid periods - After ventilation is reduced to conserve heat
Pathogens typically have: - A minimum temperature for activity - An optimum temperature range - A maximum temperature above which activity slows or stops
Important points: - Infection may occur at temperatures where growth is slow - Sporulation may require different temperatures than infection - Short periods at optimal temperature can be sufficient if moisture is present
Temperature interacts strongly with leaf wetness duration — cooler conditions usually require longer wetness periods.
Disease risk is driven more by: - How long conditions persist than by: - How extreme conditions become
Examples: - 10 hours of moderate wetness can be riskier than 1 hour of heavy rain - Sustained 92% RH can be riskier than brief condensation events - Moderate temperatures over long periods can drive infection
This is why disease models often use time-above-threshold, not daily averages.
Common mistakes: - Using daily weather summaries - Reacting to visible symptoms - Focusing on rainfall instead of leaf wetness - Ignoring night-time conditions - Treating all diseases as if they behave the same
Thresholds are pathogen-specific, but the principles are consistent.
You reduce infection risk by interrupting thresholds:
Disease prevention is often about minutes and hours, not days.
Calendar-based control assumes: - Disease pressure is constant - Infection timing is predictable
In reality: - Infection windows are episodic - Risk varies daily and spatially - Missed windows cannot be “fixed” later
Environmental awareness allows: - Better timing - Fewer interventions - More reliable outcomes